Sunday, March 20, 2011

RE: AT&T to buy T-Mobile USA for $39 billion

In a nutshell, I see the acquisition beneficiaries accordingly... Winners: T-Mobile, Clearwire, Deutsche Telekom, Verizon. Losers: Sprint, AT&T

AT&T paid $39b for 33.7m subscribers. This means a low thousand per customer to create a 129m subscription total. That would be nice if that total was static, but the churn rate just increased. Jobs will be lost, consumers will face AT&T's customer service, and AT&T will have to deal with a newly appointed CFO to run this gig. This spells disaster for the following year to come. Will AT&T be able to pay its dividends. Who knows?

Sprint's stock got so much hype due to rumor speculation, but it's all gone now. Sprint, you'd better hope that lineup at CTIA is enough to save your retail shareholders, because the bubble just popped. There is also more pressure to secure their relationship with Clearwire.

Verizon becomes number two just after becoming number one, in terms of subscriber base. I wouldn't consider VZ a winner. They are more neutral if anything. However, AT&T/T-Mobile churn rate will allow VZ to have a nice year.

Deutshe Telekom. You've lost your U.S. market breadwinner, but at a good cost. Congratulations on getting rid of all that debt. Hopefully you can allocate that extra capital into something... maybe spectrum?

Speaking of spectrum, Clearwire has that. I haven't seen the spotlight so bright on this company before, and I'm not just saying that because I have a position in it. Combine the 3 spectrums of 800, 1.9G, 2.5Ghz with Sprint's recent deal to allow multimode chipsets in devices. That is music. Fuck the technicals, this is something that has "winning" all over it. Now, the question is "Can Sprint secure their future with Clearwire?"

AT&T to buy T-Mobile USA for $39 billion

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