Wednesday, November 7, 2012

AAPL on the cheap, but going cheaper

I stated that AAPL looked cheap, but let's not catch a falling knife.

Analysis
AAPL's P/E ratio is at 12.63 at $558. If this were to hit the average P/E ratio of 16, it would be $706.88. The last time the P/E ratio was under 13 was in the year 2009. If you look at the chart, the ticker has just headed north since that time. This isn't 2009 though, and AAPL's market share is being chipped away by competitors. The stock is in a downward channel based on 5 day EMA, and long term support is at $520.

Conclusion
Mid risk: short term buy at $558, short term short at $575
Low risk: long term buy at $520.

Wait for $525 or a 6.2% drop, and buy. Support and capitulizaiton levels have been broken in the past weeks, so a short entry would make sense at any upward sporadic movements.

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