Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Prediction of ECB Conference

EDIT: I got 2/6 right. FTSE 100 up and gold is up. However, the Euro did not decline, the Dollar did not strengthen, and there was only tailwind on the major U.S. indices breaking out into 52 week highs. Volatility also vanished. I should be optimistic about this, but I'm not. I take everything with a grain of salt, and that will make me a better trader.




Mario Draghi will announce further plans for his 'unlimited' bond buying program. Buying short term and long term debt... seems to be the answer, rather than printing more money. The United States has a similar method, recently named Operation Twist. The outcome of this announcement, which occurs before the United States stock market goes into trading, will have direct implications on fiat currency and precious metals.

This will weaken the Euro currency. By how much? That will depend on the details, but the upward momentum of the Euro that has continued for the past three months will come to a halt. This allows gold to advance past $1,700 per ounce, maybe. The FTSE 100, and all major markets of the Eurozone will trend higher. Bad news will follow in the near-term, but hey- at least something was done.

In the U.S., a weaker Euro will strengthen the Dollar. When the Dollar strengthens, the equities will have an inverse relationship. In addition, all eyes are waiting on the the monthly unemployment report this Friday. This puts pressure on the U.S. stock market. If the unemployment report is good, Dollar strengthens and the hope for quantitative easing goes down. If the unemployment is bad or flat, stocks will respond with mixed feelings. Either way, volatility seems to good play for the next two days.

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