Thursday, August 16, 2012

What am I missing?



Update: I exited the trade minutes before the close. I should of acted in the after-market, but one of my trading rules is not to mess with the after-market and pre-market. I will trade in the next two days, but I will have to do more analysis since I thought this week was going to be a down week. 80% of the time was upwards momentum.

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Previously @ 9:00 am...

The U.S. jobless claims report remain flat and the markets respond... positively?! One factor may be the trend of monetary easing. The FOMC, ECB, PBC, and hell- let's throw in the central bank of Brazil are all in the trend of printing money, buying bonds, or anything that leads to the devaluation of paper currency. Don't think the presidential race has nothing to do with the markets. Romney and Ryan's chance of winning the election spur a chance of deregulation, especially for banks.

Where are the bears? With volatility this low, it is obvious. The central banks are making it hard to short sell anything. I guess Facebook is an exception, considering they just increased their share base and lockup has expired. But that's just basic math... Buybacks mitigate downwards momentum, so what Facebook did was offer more shares. I still expect an equilibrium point at $17, before touching it a second time.

As I am writing 15 minutes to the Euro market's close, new 3-month highs continue to climb past resistances. RSI is indicating more upward momentum. It's sickening and amazing at the same time. I'm going go long SPY even at these levels, and short VXX. My exit strategy will be revealed later.

Currently holding short order of VXX @ 11.80.


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